SCIENCE · VERIFIED DEVELOPMENT
2026 El Niño Set to Be Record‑Breaking, Disrupting Shipping, Fisheries and Climate
WHY IT MATTERS
The unprecedented intensity of this El Niño will raise shipping costs, disrupt food supplies, and strain water resources, amplifying economic and ecological vulnerabilities worldwide.
What happened
Scientists warn that the 2026‑27 El Niño could surpass any event in the past 150 years, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific expected to rise 3–4 °C above average. The surge has already altered marine life: Ecuadorian tuna crews travel farther from shore as fish shift to cooler waters, while coral reefs face heightened bleaching risk.
In Panama, the drought‑driven water shortage has forced canal authorities to limit daily transits, raising shipping costs and delaying deliveries. Farmers in parts of Panama cannot plant, and communities fear early‑onset dry seasons that could threaten drinking water supplies.
The combination of record heat, altered precipitation, and economic ripple effects underscores the event’s global reach.
PRIMARY SOURCES
2026’s El Niño is shaping up to be a doozy – it’s already affecting global shipping, fish behavior and heat
The Conversation US · Steven Paton, Research Biologist, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Smithsonian Institution · CC BY-ND; link/attribution intake only—no edited republication