Afghanistan Faces Persistent Crisis as Winter Wheat Season Begins, Despite Favorable Harvest

Afghanistan’s food security outlook remains in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2027, affecting the central highlands, east, northeast, southwest, and major urban centres. New provinces are projected to slip into Crisis status starting in October. Poor households entered the season with eroded assets after consecutive droughts and below‑average production, and remote, deficit‑producing areas face high transport costs that keep food prices elevated. Winter wheat planting, less labour‑intensive and often handled by landowners, will add only marginal income. As households deplete own‑produced stocks in September and casual labour income falls from October, many will experience food consumption gaps and resort to negative coping strategies such as selling productive assets and taking on debt. Stressed outcomes (IPC Phase 2) are expected elsewhere. The El Niño‑driven above‑average precipitation from October 2026 to January 2027 should enable timely winter wheat planting after four drought years, but only if temperatures remain average to below average.