Afghanistan Harvest Gains Offset by Drought, Labor Crunch, and Flooding Threats

A 2026 wheat harvest near the five‑year average and stable prices have temporarily eased food access in much of Afghanistan, but the relief is short‑lived. In Daykundi, Faryab, Ghor, Nimroz, Badakshan, and Kunar provinces, IPC Phase 3 outcomes are expected to persist as years of below‑average production, drought, and limited labor keep food and income access low. Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2) will continue across northern, northeastern, western, and southwestern regions through September, supported only by seasonal labor and petty trade. From October to January 2027, food stocks will deplete and labor opportunities will shrink, pushing households toward debt and asset sales. Heavy July rainfall caused flash flooding in Nangarhar, Paktika, and Kabul, damaging homes and crops, though the impact is localized. Prices for wheat, flour, sugar, and rice remain high relative to last year, driven by border closures and domestic demand. Above‑average precipitation is forecast for the October‑May season, potentially improving snowpack and boosting winter wheat planting, but temperatures must stay average to below average for the benefit to materialize.