Above-average winter precipitation expected to drive favorable winter wheat cultivation in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is expected to experience above-average winter precipitation, driving favorable conditions for winter wheat cultivation. This development is anticipated to support household food and income access countrywide. The ongoing El Niño event is expected to bring above-average precipitation in October 2026 and January 2027, leading to favorable conditions for winter wheat planting. Farmers are cautiously awaiting a reliable start to the season, but no delays in land preparation or planting are expected given the likelihood of a favorable start to the season. The second-season harvest, including maize, rice, and seasonal fruits, has supported household food consumption and income generation in the eastern, western, southern, and southeastern regions. However, localized hail, frost damage, and water shortages have caused some crop losses. Staple food prices in Afghanistan remained broadly stable in August 2026, supported by adequate carryover stocks from the recent harvest and continued stable imports from source markets. Wheat flour, rice, and cooking oil prices remained above last year, driven by stronger domestic demand. The Food Security and Agriculture Cluster cash basket averaged AFN 6,026 in August 2026, remaining stable compared to July 2026 and 11 percent above last year.