Ethiopia Faces Ongoing Food Crisis Amid Poor Rainfall and El Niño

A historically poor kiremt rainfall season linked to El Niño is driving meher crop losses in Ethiopia. The country's drought-affected areas are expected to persist in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2027, with some households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Poor households will rely on markets for food due to limited income from agricultural labor and elevated food prices. The October harvest may temporarily improve food access in central and southern areas, but limited production will sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the worst-affected areas. Pasture is extremely poor in Afar, negatively affecting livestock body conditions. In some areas, crop failure is likely due to poor crop establishment and delayed planting. Strengthening El Niño is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flooding in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, but depleted herds and below-average productivity will limit improvements in household food access.