Hydrogen Cost Forecasts Questioned Over Inaccurate Learning Curves

A recent analysis has raised concerns about the accuracy of hydrogen cost forecasts, which often rely on the experience curve. This empirical tool estimates the cost reduction of a technology based on its cumulative deployment. However, the analysis suggests that hydrogen learning curves are counting the wrong doublings, potentially leading to inaccurate predictions. The experience curve is a useful tool in the clean-energy transition, allowing analysts to estimate future cost reductions by compounding the learning rate. But if the curve is incorrect, it could have significant implications for the development of hydrogen technology.