Madagascar’s Grand South Faces Escalating Food Crisis Amid El Niño‑Driven Drought

The Famine Early Warning System Network reports that Phase 3 of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) will appear in Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo in July as poor households exhaust food stocks earlier than usual due to below‑average production. By October 2026, the crisis is expected to spread to large parts of Atsimo‑Andrefana, Androy and sections of Anosy, while Phase 2 (stress) will persist through September in the remainder of the Grand South. Cassava and sweet‑potato harvests, mainly in July‑August, will provide a temporary boost to household consumption and income, but overall production is projected to remain well below average because of lower‑than‑expected rainfall and irregular precipitation. The ongoing El Niño episode is likely to delay the start of the next rainy season, raise temperatures, and reduce rainfall, hampering the establishment of staple crops such as rice, maize and cassava across the Grand South and Grand South‑East. Consequences include a sharp decline in agricultural wages (20‑40 % below average), reduced purchasing power, and increasing food‑consumption deficits. Households will rely more on borrowing, asset sales, temporary migration and wild food gathering. Food prices are expected to rise further due to higher international fuel, freight and import costs, and government price‑stabilisation measures are unlikely to fully offset these pressures, eroding the purchasing power of the poorest.