Southern Malawi Faces Food Crisis as Purchasing Power Wanes

A crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to emerge in localized areas of southern Malawi and parts of the central region from October 2026 to January 2027, driven by constrained purchasing power. Atypically low agricultural labour opportunities and above‑average food prices will reduce poor households’ ability to buy food, widening consumption gaps. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected across the remaining southern districts and central areas, where most households will meet minimum food needs but struggle with non‑food expenses. Strong El Niño conditions are likely to persist through January 2027, producing below‑average and uneven rainfall that will lower agricultural labour demand, planting levels, crop development, pasture conditions and water availability, especially in the south. Maize prices rose about 5 % nationally between June and July, with a nearly 10 % jump in Balaka market, further constraining food access. Tobacco sales revenue in 2026 is forecast to be roughly 50 % below last year and 20 % below the 2023‑2025 average, weakening Malawi’s main foreign‑exchange source and tightening imports of fuel, medicines and agricultural inputs.