Pakistan’s Kharif Harvest Expected Below Average, Heightening Food Crisis

A new Food Security Outlook from the UN’s Famine Early Warning System Network warns that Pakistan’s upcoming Kharif harvest will likely fall below average. Poor monsoon rains from June to September have already reduced soil moisture in Balochistan, Sindh, and southern Punjab, and the outlook predicts that the shortfall will not be offset by the harvest. As a result, households in these provinces are projected to enter IPC Phase 3 crisis by October, after depleting rabi wheat stocks. Poor families are expected to experience food consumption gaps and resort to negative coping strategies such as selling assets or reducing meal sizes. In Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit‑Baltistan, stressed conditions will continue through September, with crisis conditions beginning in October in remote mountainous areas. Winter road closures, higher food and transport costs, and declining livelihood activity will further limit access to food and income. The outlook also notes that a strong El Niño could bring above‑average winter rains to northern KP, GB, and AJK, potentially easing water stress in those regions, while irrigation shortages in Sindh are expected to persist due to canal constraints.