Uganda’s Karamoja Region Faces Ongoing Crisis Amid Extended Rainy Season

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across Karamoja through January, even as an extended rainy season between November and December is forecast. Widespread crop losses stem from severely below‑average rainfall during the second half of the March‑September season. While some households may see modest gains from short‑maturing crops and improved livestock, these are unlikely to offset the large crop shortfall. In refugee settlements, northern camps remain in crisis, while southern camps stay stressed until September before slipping into crisis as food stocks deplete and prices rise. Limited land access, weak income opportunities, and high prices deepen market dependence. Anticipated above‑average second‑season rains could flood fields, restricting access and raising water‑borne disease risk. Humanitarian assistance is projected to be insufficient, leaving all settlements in crisis by the end of the projection period.