Vietnam Prepares for Potential Very‑Strong El Niño, Risking Drought and Water Shortages

On 24 July 2026 the Vietnamese government confirmed that El Niño 2026‑2027 has taken shape, heightening the risk of severe drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion. NOAA’s Global Outlook (13 August) projects a >90 % chance of a very strong El Niño persisting through winter 2026‑27, with a 69 % chance of a historic event in the October‑December 2026 season that could exceed previous El Niño strengths. Under high‑risk scenarios, river flows may fall 10‑20 % below average; under very‑high‑risk scenarios, 20‑40 % below average. The South‑Central Coast, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta are flagged as very‑high‑risk, with the most critical impacts expected from late 2026 to May 2027. Children—especially those under five, pregnant or breastfeeding women, children with disabilities, and those from poor, ethnic‑minority or remote households—face heightened risks from reduced safe water, food insecurity, higher food prices and disruptions to WASH, health, nutrition, education, child protection and social‑protection services. No widespread El Niño‑related humanitarian needs have been confirmed yet, underscoring the importance of anticipatory action, risk communication, frontline readiness and continuity of essential services. Preparedness must remain multi‑hazard, as El Niño does not eliminate the threat of typhoons, extreme rainfall, flash floods, landslides and urban flooding. Past El Niño events demonstrate the cost of delayed action; earlier forecasting and community action helped reduce losses in 2023‑2024. Financing for preparedness is needed ahead of the anticipated February‑May 2027 peak‑impact period.