El Niño Forecast to Reach Very Strong Intensity, Threatening 50 Million People

El Niño is firmly established and is projected to strengthen to very strong intensity, with the World Meteorological Organization estimating a nearly 100 percent chance of persistence through February 2027. The event is expected to peak toward the end of 2026, and its effects may linger beyond that point. A very strong El Niño will shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, raising the risk of drought, flooding, extreme heat and other climate hazards. The severity of impacts will vary by region, depending on how the climate signal aligns with agricultural calendars, existing humanitarian needs and local coping capacity. Long‑term warming, conflict, displacement, high food prices, malnutrition and disease outbreaks compound the risk. The World Food Programme estimates that up to 50 million people could be affected in the next six to nine months, underscoring the potential scale of the humanitarian consequences.